Hooray! It is the holiday season! This is our last Podcast of the year, maybe/probably. We also had a guest, Miss Tina Tubers. She knows as much about fantasy football as we talk about fantasy football in this podcast – almost none. PODCAST! FOOTBALL! TURKEYS! XMAS! JEW HOLIDAY (CHAUNKAKU)!!
12 – Hamburgers and Pants Fantasy Football Show
HAM
Wow we sure talked about fantasy football! Barely but it is in there. We do talk about thanksgiving, including “who was the biggest turkey” for players. I can’t believe we didn’t say that in the podcast, but I’m saying it now: We call out the turkeys. Also here is a link to a fantastic article over at yahoo where they rank the strength of schedule for the remainder of the year.
HAM
There are a million sites to go get fantasy football advice. Actually there are 6,010,000 sites according to some nerds, but frankly a lot of these sites are just terrible. I mean really really terrible. The only things sites really should be doing is telling you who is going to score many fake points, or ideally who is score MAXPOINTS!! Example: For awhile Yahoo ran a column where they’d predict next week’s points scored for each player, which is a great idea except for their execution – They were just looking at last week’s points and then raising or lowering them by 10% depending on if the next team was better or worse.
That was an awful idea, but frankly identical to what a lot of Fantasy Football owners do. The sample size of “last week” is not a good way to make predictions on players; instead a good way to see the true value of players is to look at a larger sample size of their usage.
It doesn’t mean that looking at a single week of stats can’t be useful. A player can have a good week and look to be a good play going forward. Ex: 2010 – Jacob Tamme replaces an injured Dallas Clark and is immediately great in the first week. We knew he had his position locked down and wasn’t going anywhere, Dallas Clark had been heavily involved in the offense, the rest of the offense was minimally changed. So despite a limited set of data on Jacob Tamme, we could put together a rough “back story” to fill in after we saw him perform for a week. However, the Jacob Tammes of the world are very easy pickups
It is easy to buy high, which is what happens with Jacob Tamme. You don’t have him before he starts doing well, so you generally have to be lucky to be the owner that ends up with him. (Or have a good Waiver claim.) The harder guys to find are players that had a bad game, but their numbers suggest much bigger things for them in the future. A common one will be a WR/TE with tons of catches and yards but not touchdowns. Gregg Little is a perfect example this year, because despite how many times they’re forcing him the ball, he hasn’t scored. If he had a TD or two to go with his line then he’d definitely be picked up in every semi-decent league. When people sort their WRs they do so by “Fantasy Points So Far”, which is heavily influenced by TDs…and TDs are flukey.
Anyway, the point of all this is this list right here. Or not really the point, but a site that I use nonstop to find out what is really going on with players. It’s a regular thing over at rotoworld. They break down the last 7 weeks for every team, and list what the targets were for every player. When a player has 3 receptions for 100 yards, it doesn’t really tell you what was going on in the game. Targets will let you know if he caught all 3 balls thrown to him and made them count, or if he had 10 balls thrown his way and missed 7 of them. It’ll let you know if everyone in the offense was getting more targets (like the game got out of hand), or if a particular player is getting fewer and fewer targets as the season goes on.
Anyway, happy turkey day. Lions, 49ers, Dallas.
HAM
Many of you may be playing in keeper leagues. I know we’re all “playing for keeps” (grrr) but really the only ones of us playing for keeps are in keeper leagues. A lot of leagues just give you two keeper spots, some have complex systems where players cost incrementally more each year to keep, and some (legacy) leagues you keep your entire lineup. This is great if you are in love with Jackie Battle and want him on your team every year, but bad if all your players are bad and all the other teams are good. What to do?
Here’s a quick guide to some players that might be available in your league in the FA pool that *will not* help you this year (or will help you minimally), but could be fantastic keepers for next year. This is largely a list for the 3-7 teams of the world. Since you usually don’t have to declare keepers until the start of next season, a lot of these guys can get tossed onto the end of your bench and then you can make decisions about them next season.
TOP TIER: Injured Stars
Peyton Manning: Still probably owned in your league, probably by another 3-7 team. If he’s owned by a contender, try to make a trade b/c they don’t need him. He’ll be back and passing next year and in the top 10 QBs. He’s still probably got 3 or 4 good years left in him.
Jamal Charles: He’ll also be back next year, and there’s no one in the Chief’s suspect RB group that will challenge him for his job. Much more likely to be available in your league, as his injury was season ending and happened early.
Kenny Britt: Out for the season as well, the most likely to be around. He was tearing the league apart before he got hurt…but really the Titans are a team in flux. His value next year could be just about anywhere.
MIDDLE TIER: Up for a promotion
Matt Flynn: He’s definitely available in your league, and he’s going to be some team’s starting QB next year. I don’t know where he goes (Minnesota? Jacksonville? New Jersey? ) but he’s going to travel. If you’re in a 3 or 4 player keeper league and have QB problems, he’s a guy with a lot of upside.
Michael Bush: This dude is awesome and I doubt the Raiders can afford to keep him. He’ll be made the starter somewhere and then destroy the sun with his mind. Your immediate problem is that he’s probably already on another team, working as a bye-week fill in. I would make a trade offer, possibly even give away a guy (James Starks) that is getting points now but won’t come close to Bush next year.
James Jones: Oh wait that was last year. Last year Jones looked great, was at the end of his contract, and was poised to sign with a team like the Ravens and become their #2 wideout with lots of upside. Instead he re-signed with the Packers and is the #5 option in their offense. Just a friendly reminder that some players do not follow fantasy logic.
BOTTOM TIER: Wait really you’re going to carry that guy?
Matt Cassell, Matt Schaub, Knowshon Moreno: Hurt, so they’re available. Also not very good…but they’ll have starting jobs when they come back, which sometimes is enough.
Chad Henne: UGGG you’re carrying Chad Henne??? I’m only putting him here because he’s going to get cut and then signed as a starter for a new team. Please do not carry Chad Henne.
Tim Tebow: He’s 4-1 as a starter!?!? Why is he in the bottom tier with these losers? Tebow is a unicorn and magical and does whatever he wants like Napoleon Dynamite. I know. He gets rushing yards and passing yards and Jesus yards (10 jy/pt) like there’s no tomorrow because tomorrow is the rapture. He’s also very possibly floating around the FA pool or available for trade and he’s got a lot of upside. I say this because if they make the playoffs, they’ll spend an entire offseason making the I-OPTIONCAT offense a real thing and not something they’re reading off of napkins in the huddle. You could do worse.
HAM
In this episode of the podcast we discuss all the NFL guys that got hurt. I’d list them but it is just about everybody that’s a B. Wait is Matt Schaub an A? Ladies? Fellahs? Whatever I think he’s a B. Maclin is a B.
Oh also we discuss the Walking Dead and how it is making us crazy. Sorry for not exactly understanding which holidays go where in relation to this podcast.
10 – Hamburgers and Pants Fantasy Football Show
HAM
In this episode of the podcast we discuss Racoons, Kitchens, Fred Jackson, Aaron Rodgers, a little bit of Willis McGahee and we talk about my dogs about a dozen times. My dogs look like this:
I don't know why they're stacked on top of one another
We also mention the always helpful Rotoworld, the always smart KFFL, and the most educated FantasyFootball Librarian. I feel like we were also going include a picture of something else but it has escaped my mind.
09 – Hamburgers and Pants Fantasy Football Show
AAAAAA!
HAM
My Bulletpoints list for summarizing this episode reads like this:
Soooo….I’m just gonna let this one speak for itself. I don’t think Miranda checks out at minute 26, I think I start getting boring at minute 26. Or maybe it’s a 50/50 split.
08 – Hamburgers and Pants Fantasy Football Show
HAM
This thing got done in time for waiver claims. Kind of. It is going up at 10:30 so you’ve got about an hour or two to tweak your fantasy waiver claims. But the podcast is like 20 minutes so I guess there’s not a big window there. Anyway, in this podcast I get real excited about Calvin Johnson, forget if Blaine Gabbert is even starting, and recommend/do no recommend Jonathan Dwyer.
Oh also I called the quarterback of the 2000 Ravens “Brad Johnson” even though it was Trent Dilfer.
Hamburgers and Pants Fantasy Football Show Episode 07
Good enough but actually not super good. I’ve made better predictions but was also spot-on on some others. Maybe this means I should just roll the dice if I’m trying to hit 50%? Ug.
BEAST SLEEPERS:
Philip Rivers – SD – A good day but not huge day. 18/29, 2 TDs (one running one throwing). If your league penalizes for doing bad things, then not so good. 1 INT, 5 Sacks, 1 fumble lost. A very middling performance. C
Darren Sproles – NO – Flexo flexed out this week, 51 yards rushing and 5 receptions for 40 yards receiving. Actually I guess that’s an ok flex play but not really any better than ok. You could have done much worse. B-
Every Single Player – GB – Eh, he spread it around….but they didn’t put up 54 points like I thought they would. Jones had a nice day, so did Jennings, but really just kind of average play (well for them). If the Jags had done this well they’d have burned down the stadium. C
BEAT SLEEPERS I’M JUST GOING WITH IT:
Stevie Johnson – BUF – In a game where Buffalo scored 31 points, Stevie did a 4/29 line. Maybe it was him playing a little dinged up, maybe it was Fred Jackson exploding again. A
Issac Redman – PIT – I thought no one would be running well against the Titans, but actually it was really just Issac Redman that was bad. 15 for 49 is not a good day, especially when Dwyer is putting up 107 with only 11 touches. Almost all of that came on one run. Wouldn’t it be great if Redman was a lineman? Then he could be like “Hey I’m ‘I-sack’ Redman” and then if he could play against Jim Thorpe in a time travel league we’d really have something great going on. A
Cam Newton – CAR – Cam looked vaguely mortal this week, only throwing for 224 and a couple TDs. Oh and he ran for 27 yards and another score. I give up trying to figure this guy out, I think maybe he’s actually just super good as a rookie. D
GUYS THAT SLEEP IN TRASH:
Pierre Garcon – IND – 5/125 and a couple of TDs? I think Garcon is officially in love with Curtis Painter. Dallas Clark has sunk into total obscurity and is in love with the 2012 season. A
Malcom Floyd – SD – 3/100 plus a TD. Floyd is a crapshoot every time you start him, but I am certainly glad that this was the week I suggested to do so. Next week is a bye and after that Gates comes back so don’t look for Floyd’s name again anytime soon. A
HAM
I’ve been wondering lately, because I’m 2-2 (about to be 2-3) how come my fantasy team sucks so bad? Well, I feel that a lot of people are probably suffering from this same malady — so I did some research and came up with the following reasons. (None of which are my fault)
Reason #1: Jerks getting hurt.
What’s WITH these guys, huh? Stop trying to catch the football 12 feet in the air while you’re running 800 mph — you’re obviously going to break your face! Jeez! I mean, some of us are trying to win here.
Reason #2: “Good” dudes playing mediocre games.
Just because you win the game doesn’t mean you win for me in fantasy. A low scoring game with very few awesome moments means almost nothing in fantasy. Boo.
Reason #3: The guy on my bench had a great week.
I kept you there because you were supposed to get 3 points, not 25! Stop being amazing while you’re living in the shadows. It’s just not nice.
Reason #4: My defense is swallowing points.
I need more points, not less!!! Fumbles, the other team’s points, all of it matters and literally takes negative points from my already puny score.
Reason #5: I am a bad owner.
Maybe I should be reading more of my own blog and listening to my podcast? Or perhaps:
That would probably help.
Hamburgers & Pants Fantasy Footblog 